Demographic Shifts and the Future Workforce

Frances outlined the dramatic demographic shifts underway across the globe, noting that "while we are still growing the global population, 63 countries have already peaked" in their population. This means many nations are facing rapid population declines, with some seeing up to a 14% drop in the next 13 years. At the same time, populations are ageing, with the number of people over 80 years of age set to exceed those under 1 within the next 5 years. By the late 2050s, the majority of people will be 80 or older.

These demographic shifts will have a significant impact on the workforce. In New Zealand, the workforce to retiree ratio is changing dramatically, from 7:1 in the 1960s to just 4:1 currently, and projected to be 2:1 in 50 years.

"This is where it starts to really impact on how the world looks and the workforce particularly," Frances noted.

Digital Nomads and Migration Trends

Adding to the workforce challenges are migration trends, with a record 134,000 New Zealand citizens leaving the country in the last year alone. "Young people are looking at opportunities around the world," Frances explained, as countries offer digital nomad visas to attract this mobile workforce. Places like Sardinia, Italy are even offering free or low-cost accommodation to entice young digital nomads.

"We've really got to understand that not everybody who will be working for New Zealand will actually live here," Frances said.

The Rise of Generative AI

A key focus of the briefing was the rapid advancement of generative AI. Frances highlighted major developments, including OpenAI's record-breaking $6.6 billion funding round, and the launch of Grok 2 by Elon Musk, which has "no limitations" in terms of generating copyrighted or offensive material.

Frances also demonstrated the capabilities of ChatGPT 4.0 with Canvas, which allows users to adjust the reading level, extend or shorten responses, and seamlessly integrate the AI's output. She noted that the latest ChatGPT models are "not as fast as a typical ChatGPT" but can handle highly complex, multi-variable requests.

Business and Technology Disruption Briefing - The Fourth Quarter 2024